Italy vs Sweden: Match Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips – 13/11/2017

Italy vs Sweden World Cup 2018 Qualification betting tips

Italy vs Sweden: World Cup 2018 Qualifiers Betting Tips And Offers

The second legs of the European Qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup are rapidly approaching. Thankfully for us, we’ve been almost spot on regarding all our predictions around first leg games, with one big exception: Sweden – Italy.

The Swedes managed to produce a surprise nobody really expected, this doesn’t change our plans a whole lot for the second leg. In some terms, we’re actually glad the Italians will start with a 0-1 goal difference.


Although they fell just short of expectations in the away game, we have to look into the game a bit closer to truly understand what happened. Italy had 64% possession, more shots on goal, and led 4-2 in terms of big chances.

The goal they conceded came from a deflected shot, and their defense managed to keep the opposing attackers at bay fairly easily. We believe that only bad luck and maybe some lack of inspiration made them not score in the game, which surely won’t happen for the second time in a row.

We almost can’t imagine a World Cup 2018 without Italy, and surely the home fans can’t either. For the second leg, they have everything on their part: home ground advantage, the better group, better individual players, more experience. Everything but the score, that is.


Sweden’s mission in the second leg is a lot simpler: try to score a goal. It’s hard to think that they’ll be able to defend for 90 minutes and not concede at all, so their objective will be to score exactly one goal – no more, no less.

This would oblige the Italians to score at least three times in order to progress, which suddenly turns the game into a much harder one for them.

By playing simple, direct football, the Swedes might be able to pull the complete upset and qualify for the World Cup. Nobody gave them big chances ahead of the double, but a lot of the naysayers might be biting their tongue now.

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Betting Offers & Tips

From a betting perspective, there are quite a few ideas worth exploring. First off, we expect at least 2-3 goals to be scored in the game – especially if Sweden scores first. Next off, a home victory is a fairly easy bet, with Italy being big favorites.

Even a 2-1 scoreline could make your bet a winner, although the home team won’t progress further. Betting that they’ll actually progress at the end of the 90 (or 120) minutes brings bigger odds, but also a bigger risk – one that we would most likely encourage you to take.

Last but not least, we expect 2 more things: possession to swing wildly towards the home side (>60%) and at least 4 yellow cards in the game. Both teams will do everything in their power to win, which is bound to produce a few bookable offenses.

Betting Tips & Latest Odds

BTTS: Yes @ 2.50 or 6/4

Italy & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.87 or 15/8

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